The Underground

On the 6^th February 2025, it was revealed that the US Defence Department are developing plans to withdraw US troops from Syria. The US Military has had a presence in Syria since 2014 where a civil war has been raging since 2011. Originally there to combat ISIS, who had established their ‘Caliphate’ across large parts of North and Eastern Syria, US forces have remained in the country since the last ISIS stronghold was liberated in 2019. With ISIS no longer controlling significant territory, it was a surprise to many when it was revealed that the number of US troops in Syria had increased from 900 in February 2021 to 2,000 in December 2024.

This was only revealed after the fall of the Assad regime when the Syrian rebel group ‘HTS’ swept through large parts of the country and ultimately captured the capital, Damascus. Bashar Al-Assad then left his remaining allies behind and fled to Russia. Meanwhile, the leader of HTS Ahmed al-Sharaa has taken over as Interim Prime Minister.

 However, the fighting in Syria is not done. There are Kurdish forces in the north who control large parts of Northern Syria. Groups such as The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) are actively combatting both the Turkish military and Turkish-backed groups such as The SNA (Syrian National Army) who aim to deny The Kurds any say in what a new Syria might look like.

Since the fall of Assad, Israel has now entered the fray by occupying the Golan Heights region which they have long claimed to be Israeli territory. Despite no longer holding significant territory, ISIS remains a threat through sporadic attacks and a major presence in both prisons and refugee camps. One such camp, the al-Hawl camp is said to be a breeding ground for the next generation of the infamous terrorist organisation.

Over the past 10 years, the US Military’s biggest ally in Syria has been the SDF which is surprising considering the SDF’s left-wing associations. The US have provided weapons, training and air support to the Kurdish-majority group as they fought ISIS together. The presence of US forces has also acted as a diplomatic shield for Kurdish forces in Syria. This has put America at odds with their NATO ally, Turkey. The Kurds have long been persecuted by the Turkish government who are now worried about a well-trained and well-supplied Kurdish military force controlling territory just across their border.

The SDF has so far rejected offers from the new Syrian government to disarm themselves and integrate into the new Syrian Army. They have stated that they are not opposed to integration however they wish to negotiate terms that will give Kurds more power in the country. With the US military set to withdraw from Syria, the SDF will enter these negotiations from a much weaker position.

The HTS group who now make up large parts of the new Syrian government maintain positive relations with Turkey. Were the SDF to lose their “diplomatic shield”, the new Syrian government could easily be persuaded into an alliance with their northern neighbours. This would see the SDF surrounded by their enemies and the conflict which has already claimed so many lives, would be sure to intensify.

While the US will claim they were only there to combat ISIS, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the Americans have hung their former allies out to dry. It is estimated that over 11,000 Kurds sacrificed their lives in the fight against ISIS. Now with the US withdrawal, thousands more will face the same fate in the ongoing struggle to obtain civil rights for Kurds in Syria.

Another US ally, Israel, has now become a major factor in Syria. Israel has occupied two-thirds of the Golan Heights region in southwestern Syria since the 1967 6 day war. After the fall of Assad, Israel entered and occupied the remaining third of Golan Heights on 8^th December 2024. Since then, Israel has captured more Syrian territory, advancing as far as the town of Beqaasem which is situated just 25 kilometres from Damascus.

Israel’s interests in Syria have also caused tension with Turkey. Israel has accused Turkey of allowing Iran to transport weapons through Turkish-controlled Northern Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The decision to withdraw US troops will do nothing to cool these tensions and would leave the US between a rock and a hard place. Turkey being a NATO member, the US would usually be forced to take their side. However, with Trump’s obvious disregard for the NATO alliance and America’s apparent refusal to side against Israel in any matter, large or small, conflict between the two nations becomes more likely every day.

Israel has also been on the brink of war with Iran for the past year. A flurry of missile attacks were exchanged in April 2024 and while fragile ceasefires with Iran’s proxy groups Hamas and Hezbollah have cooled the conflict, both sides are still prepared for all-out war at a moment’s notice.

Syria now acts as the land barrier that separates Israel from both Turkey and Iran. Now all 3 outside parties have a presence in Syria, either through direct military presence or proxy militias. The presence of US troops in the country has always made these three countries think twice before potentially starting a war. Now with the withdrawal, Syria is destined to become the battleground of any future war between the Middle Eastern superpowers.

While The Turkish-Kurdish conflict continues to rage in the North, Israeli forces continue to occupy the Golan Heights. ISIS are biding their time, attacking sporadically as they aim to rebuild their army and establish a second ‘Caliphate’. An inexperienced Interim Prime Minister, desperately trying to maintain control of groups and militias who have been at war with each other for years. This next period in Syrian history is likely to be one of it’s most important.

Meanwhile, US troops are preparing to pack their bags and return home. It is hard to say whether they are leaving Syria in a better state than they found it in 2014. One thing for certain is the stability that many in Syria have been praying for over the last ten years, is unlikely to come any time soon.